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Reverse Iron Condor (Long Vol)
volatility Capped lossAdvanced: a defined-risk bet on a big move in either direction.
When to use it
Buy an inner call+put spread, sell outer wings — a debit. Profits on a large move; naturally a lower win rate (pays premium up front). Good around catalysts.
Max profit
Inner-to-outer width minus the debit.
Max loss
The net debit.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFSL | 91% | +$1,951.00 | 104.7 | 37 | 44 |
| HBM | 90% | +$1,927.00 | 49.2 | 35 | 44 |
| BITO | 89% | +$1,873.00 | 43.7 | 30 | 35 |
| RIOT | 94% | +$919.00 | 25.9 | 57 | 14 |
| GDX | 92% | +$870.00 | 12.7 | 65 | 14 |
| ALK | 96% | +$861.00 | 22.6 | 82 | 14 |
| XLI | 94% | +$857.00 | 16.4 | 84 | 14 |
| SLV | 87% | +$854.00 | 9.1 | 54 | 14 |
| BNY | 96% | +$850.00 | 18.6 | 84 | 14 |
| XLC | 96% | +$850.00 | 25.1 | 84 | 14 |
| INTC | 90% | +$847.00 | 13.5 | 54 | 21 |
| CEVA | 96% | +$846.00 | 20.1 | 83 | 14 |
| BSX | 96% | +$840.00 | 16.2 | 84 | 14 |
| GILD | 96% | +$834.00 | 14.9 | 82 | 14 |
| NTNX | 95% | +$834.00 | 15.6 | 75 | 14 |
| WMT | 95% | +$831.00 | 14.1 | 77 | 14 |
| RDVT | 95% | +$830.00 | 19.6 | 76 | 14 |
| NEM | 92% | +$825.00 | 11.1 | 82 | 14 |
| WFC | 96% | +$814.00 | 17.4 | 84 | 14 |
| SNAP | 90% | +$813.00 | 12.9 | 35 | 14 |
| DVN | 96% | +$805.00 | 15.1 | 82 | 14 |
| JD | 95% | +$804.00 | 12.9 | 76 | 14 |
| DKNG | 96% | +$804.00 | 20.0 | 84 | 14 |
| IREN | 92% | +$803.00 | 10.1 | 44 | 14 |
| GME | 94% | +$799.00 | 13.0 | 66 | 14 |
| GM | 96% | +$797.00 | 17.6 | 84 | 14 |
| NFLX | 94% | +$795.00 | 11.5 | 84 | 14 |
| MARA | 90% | +$790.00 | 10.0 | 54 | 21 |
| XLK | 96% | +$788.00 | 14.9 | 84 | 14 |
| UBER | 96% | +$785.00 | 15.4 | 84 | 14 |
| GLW | 85% | +$782.00 | 6.9 | 74 | 14 |
| CCJ | 93% | +$781.00 | 10.1 | 74 | 14 |
| DOMO | 92% | +$781.00 | 11.6 | 44 | 14 |
| C | 96% | +$779.00 | 13.2 | 84 | 14 |
| DUK | 96% | +$775.00 | 21.3 | 84 | 14 |
| UMAC | 90% | +$775.00 | 19.4 | 34 | 10 |
| P | 95% | +$771.00 | 11.3 | 72 | 14 |
| PGY | 84% | +$771.00 | 7.5 | 41 | 30 |
| AEP | 96% | +$765.00 | 18.0 | 84 | 14 |
| WLDN | 85% | +$762.00 | 6.6 | 72 | 14 |
| USO | 90% | +$757.00 | 9.7 | 83 | 14 |
| RTX | 96% | +$754.00 | 12.2 | 83 | 14 |
| MDT | 96% | +$752.00 | 18.5 | 84 | 14 |
| SMR | 83% | +$750.00 | 9.1 | 30 | 21 |
| XOM | 96% | +$749.00 | 14.3 | 84 | 14 |
| NEE | 96% | +$744.00 | 16.3 | 84 | 14 |
| RIVN | 85% | +$743.00 | 6.8 | 73 | 14 |
| XRT | 96% | +$736.00 | 17.3 | 84 | 14 |
| PG | 96% | +$736.00 | 14.3 | 84 | 14 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.