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Short Straddle
neutral Uncapped riskAn IV-crush play right at the money.
When to use it
After an IV spike (post-earnings, post-event). Sell the ATM call and ATM put. Highest premium, widest breakevens.
Max profit
Both premiums, if the stock pins the strike.
Max loss
Large in either direction; advanced management required.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVXY | 83% | +$7,751.00 | 1.3 | 57 | 21 |
| SQQQ | 86% | +$2,990.00 | 2.0 | 57 | 21 |
| BLK | 87% | +$1,951.00 | 2.5 | 40 | 30 |
| PH | 87% | +$1,747.00 | 2.5 | 41 | 30 |
| EQIX | 86% | +$1,710.00 | 2.6 | 57 | 21 |
| KLAC | 87% | +$1,678.00 | 2.3 | 84 | 14 |
| ASML | 84% | +$1,550.00 | 1.8 | 84 | 14 |
| LLY | 81% | +$1,449.00 | 1.8 | 41 | 30 |
| GS | 91% | +$1,172.00 | 2.4 | 57 | 21 |
| INTU | 84% | +$1,116.00 | 2.3 | 84 | 14 |
| ADBE | 84% | +$1,101.00 | 2.1 | 83 | 14 |
| ISRG | 88% | +$1,063.00 | 3.5 | 57 | 21 |
| LIN | 80% | +$995.00 | 3.3 | 40 | 30 |
| VXX | 83% | +$939.00 | 2.9 | 40 | 30 |
| SNOW | 86% | +$861.00 | 2.7 | 57 | 21 |
| HD | 91% | +$815.00 | 4.8 | 40 | 30 |
| TMO | 87% | +$806.00 | 2.3 | 83 | 14 |
| VRTX | 80% | +$767.00 | 1.5 | 40 | 30 |
| LCID | 87% | +$736.00 | 2.2 | 41 | 30 |
| TSM | 83% | +$733.00 | 2.5 | 40 | 30 |
| LOW | 83% | +$729.00 | 3.9 | 40 | 30 |
| JPM | 80% | +$692.00 | 3.3 | 40 | 30 |
| SYK | 91% | +$683.00 | 5.3 | 41 | 30 |
| ETN | 83% | +$683.00 | 2.4 | 40 | 30 |
| MRNA | 80% | +$678.00 | 2.1 | 40 | 30 |
| CI | 91% | +$673.00 | 4.4 | 57 | 21 |
| MA | 88% | +$658.00 | 4.4 | 84 | 14 |
| DE | 81% | +$647.00 | 2.2 | 84 | 14 |
| NOW | 87% | +$620.00 | 2.8 | 41 | 30 |
| GD | 87% | +$581.00 | 6.1 | 41 | 30 |
| CAT | 81% | +$521.00 | 1.4 | 84 | 14 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.