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Iron Condor
BEGINNER neutral Capped lossProfit when a stock goes nowhere.
When to use it
Range-bound, low directional conviction, elevated IV. Sell a bull put spread AND a bear call spread. 21–45 DTE.
Max profit
Total net credit from both spreads.
Max loss
Wider wing width − net credit.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 84% | +$49.00 | 0.9 | 31 | 30 |
| INTU | 81% | +$38.00 | 1.2 | 43 | 21 |
| CRM | 84% | +$33.00 | 2.0 | 31 | 30 |
| ADP | 85% | +$29.00 | 1.0 | 43 | 21 |
| MA | 85% | +$25.00 | 1.2 | 43 | 21 |
| ULTA | 88% | +$24.00 | 0.8 | 117 | 7 |
| GD | 84% | +$23.00 | 1.8 | 31 | 30 |
| XOP | 84% | +$20.00 | 1.7 | 31 | 30 |
| MSFT | 81% | +$19.00 | 0.7 | 117 | 7 |
| EOG | 88% | +$19.00 | 1.7 | 43 | 21 |
| NDX | 82% | +$18.00 | 0.8 | 60 | 14 |
| USO | 89% | +$17.00 | 9.0 | 31 | 30 |
| SYK | 81% | +$17.00 | 1.1 | 43 | 21 |
| ON | 81% | +$16.00 | 1.8 | 43 | 21 |
| XBI | 89% | +$16.00 | 9.4 | 30 | 30 |
| HD | 85% | +$15.00 | 0.7 | 43 | 21 |
| TXN | 85% | +$15.00 | 1.0 | 63 | 14 |
| SOXL | 85% | +$14.00 | 2.3 | 63 | 14 |
| MU | 85% | +$14.00 | 1.5 | 63 | 14 |
| BX | 85% | +$13.00 | 0.8 | 62 | 14 |
| TXG | 89% | +$13.00 | 7.5 | 31 | 30 |
| CBOE | 83% | +$11.00 | 1.6 | 30 | 30 |
| LIN | 84% | +$9.00 | 0.4 | 117 | 7 |
| ICE | 81% | +$8.00 | 0.8 | 63 | 14 |
| SNOW | 84% | +$8.00 | 3.8 | 31 | 30 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.